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Statistics:  New Zealand mattress - wrapping campaign

~ Start date of publicity promoting mattress-wrapping: 1995

~ Number of babies who have slept on wrapped mattresses (to 2005): At least 165,000 (1)

~ Reported cot deaths among those babies: None

~ Cot deaths on unwrapped mattresses (or parallel bedding situations) during the same     period: About 800

~ Reduction in New Zealand cot death rate since mattress-wrapping commenced: 68% (2)

~ Approximate reduction in NZ European ethnic rate: 85% (2)

~ These major reductions in cot death rates cannot be attributed to the cot death prevention advice issued by the New Zealand Ministry of Health. There has been no material change that advice since 1992; and prior to the introduction of mattress-wrapping the New Zealand cot death rate had been static since 1993.

~ Statistical proof that mattress-wrapping prevents cot death (as calculated by statisticians at the University of Munich): p = less than 1.9 x 10-22 (4). In mathematical terms, this is more than one billion times the level of proof which is usually regarded as establishing a medical proposition. (5)

~ Publication of results of the New Zealand mattress-wrapping campaign: Two journals of environmental medicine (3,4)




Notes:

1. Number derived from two studies which reported the incidence of mattress-wrapping in New Zealand: Changes to infant sleep practices in Canterbury, New Zealand Medical Journal 2000;113:8-10; Plastic wrapping of cot mattresses: results from a pilot study, New Zealand Medical Journal 2000;113:326-327.

2. New Zealand Ministry of Health: official cot death statistics 1994 to 2005 (inclusive).

3. Cot Death - Cause and Prevention: Experiences in New Zealand 1995-2004, Journal of Nutritional & Environmental Medicine 2004; 14(3):221-232.

4. Giftige Gase im Kinderbett (Toxic Gases in Infants' Beds), Zeitschrift fuer Umweltmedizin (Journal of Environmental Medicine) 2002;44:18-20.

5. It is usual in medical circles to regard a "p" factor of less than 0.01 (10-2) as sound proof of a scientific proposition; and if the "p" is less than 0.001 (10-3), this is regarded as virtually certain proof of the proposition. The number 1.9 x 10 -22 (the "p" for mattress-wrapping) can be written as follows: 0.000,000,000,000,000,000,000,19. Put another way, the statistical proof that mattress-wrapping prevents cot death is 1018, i.e. one billion billion times the level of proof which medical researchers regard as constituting virtually certain proof of a scientific proposition.

 

Said another way:

In 2002 a German environmental medicine practitioner, Dr Hannes Kapuste, published the statistical results of the New Zealand mattress-wrapping campaign in a peer-reviewed journal:
Giftige Gase im Kinderbett (Toxic Gases in Infants' Beds), Zeitschrift fuer Umweltmedizin (Journal of Environmental Medicine) 2002;44:18-20 
The "p" factor for the mattress-wrapping intervention was calculated by Dr Kapuste (in collaboration with the Statistics Department of the University of Munich) as being: 
p = less than 1.9 x 10-22 

It is usual in medical circles to regard a "p" factor of less than 0.01 (10-2) as sound proof of a scientific proposition; and if the "p" is less than 0.001 (10-3), that is regarded as virtually certain proof of the proposition.

The number 1.9 x 10-22 (the "p" for mattress-wrapping) can be written as: 0.000,000,000,000,000,000,000,19
Put another way, the statistical proof that mattress-wrapping prevents cot death (SIDS, crib death) is 1018  i.e. one billion billion times the level of proof which medical researchers generally regard as constituting certain proof of a scientific proposition.

Not surprisingly, therefore, Dr Kapuste described the toxic gas theory for cot death and mattress-wrapping for cot death prevention as having "overwhelming reliability".  

 

 
 



Dr. Jim Sprott (Penguine 1996)

The Cot Death Cover-up?
Read Chaper one! 
click here

NBC News and Dr. Jim Sprott in California

 

Has The Causes of SIDS (Crib Death) Been Found?
By Jane Sheppard

Parents Denied Crucial Findings  click here to read

The Cot Death Cover-up?
Cot Death "No Medical Cause"
How to prevent SIDS (Cot Death)
Limerick Report
Success of Mattress Wrapping
Mechanism of Cot Death (SIDS)

Results of Bedding Analysis
Information about Sheepskins
Head flattening (plagiocephaly)
Statistics of New Zealand Mattress Wrapping
Information for professional students
Cot Death (SIDS) Cause and Prevention
Cot Death Today

Abnormal Brainstems not a cause of SIDS
Baby Safe Mattress Covers
Orthodox crib death prevention advice: The facts and the Fallacies

...Fact (but only a partial solution):
To reduce the risk of cot death, sleep your baby face up...

click here to read more
______________________________

Rebuttal to the FSID Statement Regarding the Toxic Gas Hypothesis of Cot Death  click here
 


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