Statistics:
New Zealand mattress - wrapping campaign
~
Start date of publicity promoting mattress-wrapping: 1995
~ Number of babies who have slept on
wrapped mattresses (to 2005): At least 165,000 (1)
~ Reported cot deaths among those
babies: None
~ Cot deaths on unwrapped mattresses
(or parallel bedding situations) during the same
period: About 800
~ Reduction in New Zealand cot death
rate since mattress-wrapping commenced: 68% (2)
~ Approximate reduction in NZ European
ethnic rate: 85% (2)
~ These major reductions in cot death
rates cannot be attributed to the cot death prevention
advice issued by the New Zealand Ministry of Health. There
has been no material change that advice since 1992; and
prior to the introduction of mattress-wrapping the New
Zealand cot death rate had been static since 1993.
~ Statistical proof that
mattress-wrapping prevents cot death (as calculated by
statisticians at the University of Munich): p = less than
1.9 x 10-22 (4). In mathematical terms, this is more than
one billion times the level of proof which is usually
regarded as establishing a medical proposition. (5)
~ Publication of results of the New
Zealand mattress-wrapping campaign: Two journals of
environmental medicine (3,4)
Notes:
1. Number derived from two studies which reported the
incidence of mattress-wrapping in New Zealand: Changes to
infant sleep practices in Canterbury, New Zealand Medical
Journal 2000;113:8-10; Plastic wrapping of cot mattresses:
results from a pilot study, New Zealand Medical Journal
2000;113:326-327.
2. New Zealand Ministry of Health: official cot death
statistics 1994 to 2005 (inclusive).
3. Cot Death - Cause and Prevention: Experiences in New
Zealand 1995-2004, Journal of Nutritional & Environmental
Medicine 2004; 14(3):221-232.
4. Giftige Gase im Kinderbett (Toxic Gases in Infants'
Beds), Zeitschrift fuer Umweltmedizin (Journal of
Environmental Medicine) 2002;44:18-20.
5. It is usual in medical circles
to regard a "p" factor of less than 0.01 (10-2) as sound
proof of a scientific proposition; and if the "p" is less
than 0.001 (10-3), this is regarded as virtually certain
proof of the proposition. The number 1.9 x 10 -22 (the "p"
for mattress-wrapping) can be written as follows:
0.000,000,000,000,000,000,000,19. Put another way, the
statistical proof that mattress-wrapping prevents cot death
is 1018, i.e. one billion billion times the level of proof
which medical researchers regard as constituting virtually
certain proof of a scientific proposition.
Said another way:
In 2002 a German
environmental medicine practitioner, Dr Hannes Kapuste,
published the statistical results of the New Zealand
mattress-wrapping campaign in a peer-reviewed journal:
Giftige Gase im
Kinderbett (Toxic Gases in Infants' Beds), Zeitschrift fuer Umweltmedizin (Journal of Environmental
Medicine) 2002;44:18-20
The "p" factor for the
mattress-wrapping intervention
was calculated by Dr Kapuste (in
collaboration with the Statistics Department of the
University of Munich) as being:
p =
less than 1.9 x 10-22
It is usual in medical circles to
regard a "p" factor of less than 0.01 (10-2)
as sound proof of a scientific proposition; and if the "p"
is less than 0.001 (10-3),
that is regarded as virtually certain proof of the
proposition.
The number 1.9 x 10-22
(the "p" for mattress-wrapping) can be written
as:
0.000,000,000,000,000,000,000,19
Put another way, the statistical proof that
mattress-wrapping prevents cot death (SIDS, crib
death) is 1018 i.e. one billion billion times the level
of proof which medical researchers generally regard
as constituting certain proof of a scientific
proposition.
Not
surprisingly, therefore, Dr Kapuste described the
toxic gas theory for cot death and mattress-wrapping
for cot death prevention as having "overwhelming
reliability".
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